Who will win the 2026 World Cup Golden Boot?
By Jamie Spencer
The World Cup Golden Boot, handed out every four years to the top scorer at the tournament, is one of the biggest individual honours the sport has to offer.
No one has ever won the Golden Boot twice, never mind retain it from one World Cup to the next – which is what Kylian Mbappé is trying to do this summer. The Frenchman scored successive braces in group stage wins over Senegal and Iraq, half the tally so far that secured him the trophy in 2022.
France teammate Ousmane Dembélé raced onto four goals during a final group win against Norway. The 2025 Ballon d’Or winner scored a hat-trick in that game, adding to the one he got against Iraq a few days earlier. Remarkably, he‘d never found the net in 11 previous World Cup appearances before this summer, while Dembélé’s four goals at this tournament alone account for 36% of his entire goal output in a France shirt stretching back to his senior debut in 2016.
Next up, France face a Sweden team that shipped seven goals during the group stage and was ripped apart by a clinical Netherlands. There is significant potential for both French players to add goals.
Norway came into this World Cup – their first in 28 years – identified as a dark horse. A large part of that faith is the presence of Erling Haaland, who hasn’t disappointed with four goals in the two games he’s featured in so far.
Vinícius Júnior has put a challenging club season with Real Madrid behind him to also score four times in the group stage. Rather like Dembélé, Vini Jr. doesn’t have a brilliant record at international level – only nine goals in 49 appearances prior to the World Cup – but has stepped up massively this summer. No Brazilian player has won the Golden Boot since Ronaldo in 2002.
The only player to outscore Mbappé, Dembélé, Haaland and Vinícius at the end of the group stage is Lionel Messi, whose six goals in three games – combined with Argentina’s rather kind path through the knockout bracket – now makes him the clear favourite at this stage.
Messi arguably underperformed at his first four World Cups (2006, 2010, 2014, 2018), but has been supercharged over the last two since his 35th birthday. After another goal off the bench against Jordan to conclude the group stage, it’s 13 in his last 10 World Cup appearances since the start of the 2022 finals alone, compared to six in his first 19 games. He’s never won the Golden Boot before and, now at the age of 39, would be the oldest player to get his hands on it.
The Chasing Pack
Matheus Cunha could be one to keep an eye on. He had only scored once for Brazil before this World Cup but is taking full advantage of the Seleção’s lack of a clear No. 9 starter, after coming into the team when Igor Thiago was dropped following the Morocco draw. Cunha scored twice straight off the bat and took his tally to three by the end of the group stage. Momentum is on his side.
Brian Brobbey is in a similar position for the Netherlands, a bench player to begin with but scoring three in the second two group matches. The Oranje No. 9 shirt is now his to lose and the Sunderland man will be a goal threat for as long as the Dutch stay in the tournament.
Still waiting for a first start of the World Cup but bizarrely still in this conversation is Deniz Undav of Germany. The 29-year-old Stuttgart frontman is a late bloomer and counts Jürgen Klopp and Thomas Müller among his supporters. It’s three goals so far in only 86 minutes on the pitch. He either comes into the starting XI soon or maintains this highly effective super sub role.
Canada’s Jonathan David leads the way in goals among the three co-hosts. The Juventus striker scored a hat-trick in his team’s Group B win over Qatar, but has otherwise been underwhelming and will struggle to keep up with the big hitters.
Morocco’s Ismael Saibari, Senegal’s Ismaïla Sarr, Switzerland’s Johan Manzambi and DR Congo’s Yoane Wissa all have three goals from the group stage but may not get the same opportunities as the likes of Messi, Mbappé and Dembélé to add many more to their respective tallies. Elijah Just had scored three times in Group G for New Zealand but cannot add to that total after their elimination.
Big Guns Yet to Explode
England captain Harry Kane also has three goals to his name but is yet to show the kind of form that led to him scoring an astonishing 61 times for Bayern Munich during the 2025/26 club season. The 32-year-old is more than capable of getting on a run and will certainly fancy his chances after a drab performance against Ghana was followed by a better end to the win over Panama. A quick hat-trick could easily propel him firmly into Golden Boot contention and England face DR Congo next.
“I’m back! I’m back!” was how Cristiano Ronaldo responded to a brace in Portugal’s win over Uzbekistan, which had followed a woeful showing against DR Congo. He didn’t get on the scoresheet against Colombia and, trailing Messi by four goals and with Portugal facing a much tougher knockout route, the World Cup Golden Boot looks like one major accolade will fully elude him.
(Cover image courtasy of adidas Football, further images from IMAGO)
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