Mexico banking on Azteca home advantage to progress at World Cup
The Azteca is a cradle of the sport. A place where football is much more than just a game. For the 87,000-odd fans that fill its legendary stands, it is a monument to what football reflects about the human spirit. There is no other venue like it at this World Cup. SoFi Stadium might have cost $5.5 billion to build, but it doesn’t have the spirit of the Azteca. No other stadium does.
For Mexico, this could be a driving factor behind their 2026 World Cup campaign. El Tri are one of three teams to have a 100% record after three games, the other two being Argentina and France. Two of those three wins have taken place at the Azteca which will also host their round of 32 tie against Ecuador on Tuesday.
Javier Aguirre’s team have exceeded expectations so far. While Mexico’s preparations for the 2026 World Cup on home soil were far from perfect, their victories over South Africa, South Korea and Czechia were comfortable. Remarkably, the co-hosts have yet to concede a goal, giving them the joint-best defensive record in the entire tournament alongside Spain.
Mexico’s Group A campaign was so comfortable that Aguirre was able to rest most of his best players for the final fixture against Czechia, which the co-hosts still won at a canter. Nobody would have predicted that El Tri would be sitting so pretty three games into a World Cup many fans and observers were pessimistic about.
Ecuador, however, will pose a stiffer test. This is a team that finished second in CONMEBOL qualifying for the 2026 World Cup. They conceded just five goals in 18 qualifiers and boast one of international football’s most formidable defensive lines. Indeed, their backline includes Arsenal’s Piero Hincapié and Paris Saint-Germain’s Willian Pacho. They’re solid.
This is where the fabled Azteca atmosphere could come into play. As co-hosts, Canada and the USA have also played ‘home’ games at this World Cup, but neither have had the advantage Mexico have when they walk out at Mexico City’s most historic of venues. El Tri draws power from their surroundings.
“Our home crowd is our 12th man,” said Aguirre when asked about the impact the Estadio Azteca crowd could have on Tuesday’s round of 32 match. “I don’t mean to say that we don’t have support elsewhere, but we are aware that we have a whole country behind us, and that motivates us a lot. I would say that we are all excited about what’s to come.”
There is still another level for Mexico to reach. While progress through Group A was serene, El Tri didn’t demonstrate a whole lot of open play creativity in their three games, demonstrated by the fact they are ranked only 12th for Big Chances created over the course of the World Cup to date.
Expected Goals (xG) paints an even starker image with Mexico ranked a lowly 26th on 3.7 from three games. Aguirre’s team have grossly over-performed their underlying numbers in a way that suggests their winning form might not be sustainable in the knockout rounds. Mexico must show greater invention.
Brian Gutiérrez could be key in this regard. The Illinois-born attacking midfielder made the switch to Mexico from the USA at the start of the year and has been an important figure for El Tru at the 2026 World Cup. While Gutiérrez might still be raw in some of his decision-making in the final third, his influence is significant.
Gilberto Mora’s eye-catching display in Mexico’s final group game against Czechia has led to suggestions he could start against Ecuador. The 17-year-old is the country’s great hope for the future with the wonderkid reportedly on Real Madrid’s radar. However, injury has limited his World Cup role until this point. That could change in the round of 32.
Mexico have never made it beyond the quarter-finals of a World Cup. For decades, they have spoken about the ‘quinto partido’ – the fifth game as being the glass ceiling above El Tri. In the expanded format, the quarter-final is no longer the fifth game, but the focus on one day making the final four remains.
Other teams at the 2026 World Cup are more talented than Mexico. Few fancy them to make the semi-finals, but with the Azteca behind them anything is possible. The iconic, almost mythical, stadium could be the setting for more World Cup history before this summer’s tournament is over.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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