When will Mercedes become F1 world champions in 2026?

The 2026 Formula 1 season has seen Mercedes return to its dominant past as it is on course to claim its first double championship victory since the COVID-struck 2020 campaign.

Kimi Antonelli and George Russell top the drivers’ standings with the former holding a 102-point advantage, while Mercedes leads second-placed Ferrari by 134 points in the constructors’ table.

It is thanks to 11 victories in 17 grands prix that the Silver Arrows is in this position at the start of the new regulations, most of those wins coming early on as rivals subsequently closed the gap.

Regardless, Mercedes is set for its first drivers’ title since 2020 after a period of Max Verstappen domination and a crown for Lando Norris, with it being a similar story in the constructors.

The Silver Arrows last won that championship in 2021 before Red Bull and McLaren overtook it during the ground-effect era, but with six rounds remaining in 2026, Mercedes is set for glory.

Antonelli can clinch his maiden world title next time out in Austin, though is most likely going to do it a week later in Mexico, whereas Mercedes may have to wait a little longer to win the teams’ crown.

How many teams can still win the F1 2026 world title?

Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Mercedes, Lewis Hamilton, Ferrari

Photo by: James Sutton / LAT Images via Getty Images

There are 258 points left on offer in the 2026 F1 world constructors’ championship table, provided Qatar and Abu Dhabi go ahead amid the ongoing Middle Eastern conflict.

That means there are four teams left with a mathematical shot, as Mercedes leads Ferrari by 134 points, McLaren by 239 and Red Bull by 246 – fifth-placed Racing Bulls is 478 behind.

Can Mercedes win the F1 2026 world title at the US GP?

When F1 greets the chequered flag in Austin next weekend, there will be 215 points left available in the 2026 constructors’ championship.

That means the United States Grand Prix is likely to see McLaren and Red Bull drop out of contention, as they would need to be within 214 points post-Austin.

It is because Mercedes has nine more wins than both squads, so if McLaren and Red Bull cut it to 215 in Texas, they would still be eliminated from the fight due to countback of victories.

Given that would require the reigning champions and Red Bull outscoring Mercedes by at least 25 and 32 points respectively, Ferrari is realistically the only threat to the German marque.

And because the Scuderia will leave the United States still within 214 points of Mercedes regardless of what happens, the constructors’ title will not be decided next weekend.

When can Mercedes win the F1 2026 world title?

Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Mercedes

Photo by: Sam Bagnall / Sutton Images via Getty Images

The worst-case scenario for Ferrari in Austin is that it experiences a double non-points score with Mercedes finishing 1-2, which would leave a 177-point gap between them.

If that unlikely scenario happens, the German marque heads to Mexico City with a chance of claiming its ninth constructors’ title – moving level with Williams on the all-time list behind Ferrari (16) and McLaren (10).

Again, provided Qatar and Abu Dhabi go ahead, there are 172 points available in the four grands prix after Mexico. So, if the above scenario in Austin happens, Mercedes would just need to make sure that Ferrari doesn’t outscore it by at least six points in Mexico.

Yet at no point this season has Mercedes taken a full score from a grand prix with Ferrari taking nothing, as the below table indicates – excluding sprint races as there are none left in 2026. 

Looking at that, Mercedes has outscored Ferrari by an average of 7.6 points across the 17 grands prix so if that were to happen across the next two, it leaves a gap of 149 points.

So even for Mercedes to clinch the title in Mexico is a tough ask. F1 is most likely looking at the grand prix afterwards, in Brazil, where the Silver Arrows could become world champions.

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– The Motorsport.com Team