Liam Lawson’s remarkable form is giving Red Bull a headache for 2027
So far in 2026, Liam Lawson has been a clear standout performer in Formula 1’s midfield.
Lawson has scored 83 points so far, nearly twice as many as second-best Pierre Gasly’s 42 – and that’s not even down to his Red Bull stint, during which he barely scored more points per race than with Racing Bulls (4.67 vs 4.31).
Yet, there’s a substantial chance Lawson loses his seat at the Faenza-based outfit – and on the F1 grid altogether – for the 2027 season.
Formula 2 title contender Nikola Tsolov emerged as a frontrunner for the second Racing Bulls seat as he claimed a whopping six victories across the first 14 races of the 2026 season, but his qualifying pace has not been as good as his main rivals’ and he has failed to reach the top step of the podium in the last 11 contests.
Still, the 19-year-old Bulgarian is just seven points down on championship leader Rafael Camara – who is set to make his F1 debut with Haas this weekend at the Brazil GP – so he still has genuine championship chances.
Meanwhile, with Arvid Lindblad’s solid F1 rookie campaign, Lawson’s time in Faenza seemed destined to end. But after being outperformed by every one of his team-mates thus far – Yuki Tsunoda, Max Verstappen, Isack Hadjar – Lawson has had the upper hand on Lindblad.
In qualifying, Lawson leads their head-to-head 12-6, with a 0.072s advantage discounting the unrepresentative Melbourne session – that’s 9-5 and a 0.027s gap without sprint qualifying. More interestingly, he is 0.141s faster than his team-mate on average in race trim.
And over the last month, Lawson has proven to be a not just competitive but also safe pair of hands. In qualifying, he hasn’t been outqualified on merit, lapping 0.257s faster on average, since he returned to Racing Bulls after his three-round stint at Red Bull, standing in for Isack Hadjar.
The New Zealander has collected 24 points in the last four grands prix – more than Hadjar and George Russell. Hindered by a grid penalty in Malaysia and a collision with Oscar Piastri in Mexico, Lindblad has scored just one in the meantime.
Liam Lawson, Racing Bulls
Photo by: Alex Bierens de Haan / LAT Images via Getty Images
Red Bull’s upcoming decision for 2027 may hinge on one simple question: do Lawson’s recent drives suggest he might ever be deserving of another chance at the main team?
If so, Tsolov may have to bide his time – perhaps in Super Formula, where several other Red Bull juniors competed after graduating from GP2/F2. That avenue led to F1 drives for Pierre Gasly and that very Lawson.
But if Red Bull sees no realistic path back to Milton Keynes for Lawson, however hard to ignore his current performance is, then keeping him at Racing Bulls won’t make as much sense, and Tsolov may get his chance to shine.
And with every points finish, Lawson gets the same question about his future. In Mexico’s post-race media pen, he was again asked if it was a shame that his seat was still a matter of uncertainty despite the ‘huge’ gap to Lindblad.
“It’s obviously a massive shame, but it’s something that I’m just having to deal with at the moment,” he responded. “I’m obviously trying to do everything I can each time I get in the race car.”
Let’s see if that will be enough.
Additional reporting by Kevin Hermann
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