How Premier League teams have really started – according to expected goals

How have Premier League teams really started?

At this stage last season Liverpool were top, with five wins out of five, and Tottenham were third. Given that they finished fifth and 17th respectively, it shows that the table shouldn’t be taken too seriously this early on.

While any statistics should be taken with a pinch of salt – given such a small sample size of games and the fact that some teams have had more difficult starts than others – they do provide a more accurate picture of how the season could unfold.

Expected goals (xG) tells us how much teams have dominated games, based on the number and quality of shots they’ve taken and faced. Basically, how well they’ve performed in general before finishing, shot-stopping and plain old luck come into play.

And Premier League history shows us that the more a team dominates games, the more points they win in the long run.