Argentina can take full advantage of helpful knockout path in pursuit of World Cup history

By Jamie Spencer

To be the best you invariably have to be beat the best. But sometimes you have to beat the best a little less often. This is the very nature of tournament football.

Former England manager Roy Hodgson once remarked the “alternative” to a challenging draw is “thinking you have an easy draw and then it becomes much tougher than you envisaged.” England under Fabio Capello had seen that unfold in 2010’s World Cup group stage, finishing with five points in a group that one tabloid newspaper branded ‘England, Algeria, Slovenia, Yanks … EASY.’

There are no easy games, but you can also only beat whoever is put in front of you.

In 2014, Germany completed arguably the toughest World Cup triumph there has ever been, thrashing Portugal in the group stage, before later eliminating France and Brazil—the latter via a historic 7-1 scoreline, and then facing and beating Argentina in the final.

That was in stark contrast to their route to the 2002 final, winning 1-0 in three successive knockout games against Paraguay, the United States and South Korea. Four years later, losing finalists France reached the showpiece by knocking out Spain, Brazil and Portugal in the preceding three rounds, a ridiculous path that arguably deserved a greater reward than a runner-up medal.

If there is any team that has been handed a particularly favourable knockout path in 2026, it’s Argentina, which could significantly aid their attempt to become the first reigning champions in 64 years – since Pelé’s Brazil in 1962 – to successfully retain the trophy. Italy in the 1930s is the only other example of a men’s team winning back-to-back. It just doesn’t happen.

Equally, Lionel Messi’s bid to finally lay his hands on a first World Cup Golden Boot should get a helpful boost by continuing to face less than elite opposition for several rounds beyond the comfort of the group stage. The last player to score double figures in a single World Cup was Gerd Müller (10) in 1970, while the single tournament record is 13 and belongs to Just Fontaine from 1958. Messi has six in three games so far, matching or surpassing the winning tally for 10 of the last 12 Golden Boots, and could play up to five times more before his tournament is over.

Argentina avoid elite opposition until semi-finals

For clarity, the World Cup knockout phase is split into two halves of 16 teams, with each of those comprised of a mini-bracket of eight – the winner of each mini-bracket will be the semi-finalists.

Of the 16 teams that started out in the top half of the knockout bracket, 10 were ranked inside FIFA’s top 20 – France, Spain, Morocco, Netherlands, Portugal, Belgium, Germany, Croatia, United States, Senegal. In the other half, it’s only seven – Argentina, England, Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Switzerland, Japan – with the majority of the strength also concentrated in one side of that half-bracket.

Within Argentina’s mini-bracket no other team is ranked inside the world’s top 10, with Colombia and Switzerland the toughest competition. Messi and co. cannot meet either of them until the quarter-finals. They cannot meet a single other top 10-ranked team until the semi-finals.

Argentina begin their knockout phase on Friday with a contest against Cape Verde, the island nation initially overjoyed just to qualify and then remarkably navigate the group stage – unbeaten but failing to claim a win – at the expense of Uruguay and Saudi Arabia. The prize for winning that last 32 tie is a last 16 meeting with Australia or Egypt, who can only boast one win each in the group stage and lack a real fear factor.

Argentina coach Lionel Scaloni is cautious about Cape Verde – “Spain couldn’t beat ​them, Uruguay couldn’t either. I can guarantee you ​they’re a team that’s going to make it difficult for us.” – but defeat for the reigning champions would go down as one of the all-time World Cup shocks and is extremely unlikely.

Get through Cape Verde, and Australia/Egypt, Argentina would have a quarter-final against either Switzerland, Algeria, Colombia or Ghana. Compare that to Brazil and England potentially facing off at the same stage, while Portugal and Spain could be thrown together in the last 16.

France are on course to meet Morocco in the quarter-finals, a hugely challenging tie against the reigning African champions demonstrating that 2022 was no fluke. Les Bleus were expected to be facing Germany in the last 16, but for the latter’s shock penalty shootout defeat to Paraguay. At least that shows anything is still possible once the talking stops and the teams cross the white line.

Argentina’s semi-final opponent would come from the winner of the projected England vs. Brazil quarter-final, although just to reach the last eight the Three Lions have to beat Mexico in the Azteca Stadium – where the hosts very rarely lose – and the Seleção are up against Norway.

By the time the semi-finals come around, Argentina could be fuelled by some serious momentum and with plenty potentially left in the tank compared to those they might then play.

Still, Scaloni isn’t buying it. “In this World Cup, we’ve seen that you have to be careful.”

(Images from IMAGO)

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